LCIDBearunverifiable
Business of Life - Investing“Now to open the box and show you the answer why the Lucid right now is a great investment in my view is still a risky investment. So my answer is no. Even if from this level you may have a double still the risk is too high.”@ 6:12 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLCID stock down 50% YTD with $4B market cap as revenue grew from $600M to $800M+ and deliveries climbed, but speaker concludes the company is still a risky investment. The Uber/Nuro robotaxi partnership and Nvidia collaboration provide upside potential but are unproven, and continued losses guarantee ongoing dilution that will dilute investor returns.
Key arguments
- Revenue growing from $600M to $800M+ with 2025 potentially over $1B
- Deliveries climbing year over year (4.3K, 6K, 10K, 10.9K in 9 months)
- $2.9B cash, $2B debt, $900M net
- Uber $300M investment with Nuro for robotaxi service starting late 2026 in Bay Area
- Nvidia collaboration for autonomous hardware
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock down 50% YTD despite revenue growth
- 2025 delivery guidance of 18K-20K likely not met due to macro headwinds
- Robotaxi service not yet operating vs Waymo and Tesla already live
- Shares outstanding went from 170M to 320M — massive dilution history
- Continued losses imply continued share issuance
The call
- Date said
- Dec 2, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $12.88
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker clearly rejects the stock but does not commit to a specific downside target — the answer is an avoid/sell with no numeric floor.