LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$5.87
“Right now with that 725 it's below every key fib level and this is going to be again falling off of a virtual cliff. So with it right now below that 788 587 is going to be that next strong support.”@ 7:30 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishThe speaker argues that LCID's decline is not manipulation but institutional selling, driven by concerns over repeated convertible preferred stock issuances since 2022. The PIF's preferred stock position means they win regardless of price direction, and Wall Street is walking away. Bears are targeting sub-$5 by May 15.
Key arguments
- Institutions selling, not shorts manipulating — big players like Vanguard, BlackRock likely reducing positions
- Convertible preferred stock reliance is a 'death' mechanism seen in dozens of failing stocks
- PIF designed their structure to profit whether LCID goes up or down
- 32.2% of free float shorted; puts outweighing calls 4:1 ($4M puts vs $963K calls)
- Demand slowing in Europe; Lucid missing broader market FOMO rally
- Long-term investors starting to capitulate
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Bulls see $7.50-$8.00 as potential floor
- If LCID hits $5, some institutions may step back in
The call
- Date said
- Apr 17, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $7.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $5.87
- Return
- +19.6%
- Notes
- Target ≤$5.87 reached on 2026-04-29. Price: $5.87. Return: +19.6%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$5.87 reached on 2026-04-29. Price: $5.87. Return: +19.6%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.