METABullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“it's still pretty dang cheap probably at right now their valuations probably like a 1.1 or 1.15 peg.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin highlights Meta's call options (warrants) on AMD as a source of significant 'other income' boosting earnings, and considers Meta undervalued on a PEG basis despite a recent rally.
Key arguments
- Meta holds call options on AMD exercisable at a penny, generating large other-income gains as AMD's stock rose
- Meta's valuation is still viewed as cheap on a PEG basis even after a recent rally
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Goldman Sachs framing these as 'headwinds' rather than bearish calls
- Analysis based on forward-looking depreciation estimates that may not materialize as predicted
- Host acknowledges earnings valuations are 'in line with 10-year average' on forward P/E basis
- Discussion of GPU price appreciation as unsustainable suggests speculative asset valuations
- Commentary focuses on 2027 specifically, implying near-term (12-month) caution rather than long-term bearishness
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $741.25
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Repeated hedge word 'probably' and lack of specific price target lowers confidence despite bullish framing.