NBISBullpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$238
“Our Stock AI forecast right now has Neveah sitting at a fair value of about $238.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin reviews a bullish Goldman Sachs note on Nebius driven by strong per-megawatt compute deal pricing, a new Groq/Nvidia chip partnership, and a Bloom Energy power deal, while noting his own valuation model is more conservative than Goldman's. He flags risks around reliance on upfront customer deposits inflating cash flow, the sustainability of current elevated GPU rental pricing, and Nebius's smaller scale relative to peers like SpaceX and Google.
Key arguments
- Deals closing at $20 million per megawatt with sub-two-year payback periods, better than Kevin's own expectation of $14-15B/GW
- New partnership providing first Groq production chips for ultra-fast token inference, competing with Cerebras
- Secured hundreds of megawatts of behind-the-meter power generation and a Bloom Energy fuel cell deal to speed deployment
- Balance sheet is decent with $8 billion cash versus manageable long-term debt
- Goldman expects profitability by 2028 with significant growth through the end of the decade
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 70% of Q2 deals included upfront payments, meaning reported cash flow may be inflated by deposits that won't recur
- Deliberately holding back 2027 capacity to artificially support pricing distorts true market-clearing spot prices
- Current elevated GPU rental pricing may be a temporary bump from agentic coding demand that could revert, causing roughly a 20% price decline
- Nebius is much smaller than SpaceX or Google, limiting its scale relative to peers
- High cancellation costs and payback sustainability remain uncertain as pricing scales
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Current spot pricing of $20B/gigawatt may not be sustainable long-term
- Higher pricing in the $40-50B/megawatt range is only being negotiated, not yet closed
- Long-term pricing expectations of $30-50B may not materialize as initially forecasted
- Goldman Sachs' price target is higher than the presenter's Stock AI forecast of $238
- Dependent on continued ability to sign deals at premium pricing levels
The call
- Date said
- Aug 27, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $236.12$1.88 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as the team's own model output with specific price and implied upside, but without hedge language or an explicit forward timeframe.
Source
Nebius Stock (NBIS) Price Target JUST Jumped
Said on Aug 27, 2026Open on YouTube ↗