The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price
$6.50
Quoted text as recorded“So, there was a $8 put that was purchased. Expiry date May 15, 2026. Premium that they did pay was $131. So they are assuming it's basically going to be around 650 give or take by May.”@ 2:56 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Feb 23, 2026
- Extracted deadline
- May 15, 2026
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: condition
- Notes
- The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Lucid hit a new 52-week low as Trump announced global 10-15% tariffs with potential to increase to 20-25%. Most significantly, a $1.6M put option was purchased with an $8 strike expiring May 15, 2026 — implying a target around $6.50 — the day before Q4 earnings. All three institutional transactions on the secondary market are sells. The host notes this bearish bet could be macro-hedging rather than Lucid-specific, but the signal is notable heading into earnings.
Key arguments
- $1.6M put purchased at $8 strike expiring May 15, 2026 — implies target around $6.50
- New 52-week all-time low hit today
- Trump tariff escalation (10% → 15% → possibly 20-25%) is a direct headwind for US manufacturing
- All three institutional transactions above $100K on secondary market are sells
- 80% of options done today are bearish in nature
- Bears anticipating $8-$8.50 by end of earnings week
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Large put purchase could be a macro hedge rather than LCID-specific bearish bet
- Stock recovered from intraday low — some buyers present
- Lucid can leverage AMP 2 Saudi facility to bypass some US tariff exposure
- Q4 earnings could be a positive catalyst if company hits expectations
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Feb 23, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_condition
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified condition
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before33.79
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before9.44
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2026-04-25
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$6.5 reached on 2026-04-25. Price: $6.25. Return: +33.8%.
AfterThe claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
- Outcome price
Before6.25
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified condition
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $6.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- May 15, 2026
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.