LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$6.50
“So, there was a $8 put that was purchased. Expiry date May 15, 2026. Premium that they did pay was $131. So they are assuming it's basically going to be around 650 give or take by May.”@ 2:56 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid hit a new 52-week low as Trump announced global 10-15% tariffs with potential to increase to 20-25%. Most significantly, a $1.6M put option was purchased with an $8 strike expiring May 15, 2026 — implying a target around $6.50 — the day before Q4 earnings. All three institutional transactions on the secondary market are sells. The host notes this bearish bet could be macro-hedging rather than Lucid-specific, but the signal is notable heading into earnings.
Key arguments
- $1.6M put purchased at $8 strike expiring May 15, 2026 — implies target around $6.50
- New 52-week all-time low hit today
- Trump tariff escalation (10% → 15% → possibly 20-25%) is a direct headwind for US manufacturing
- All three institutional transactions above $100K on secondary market are sells
- 80% of options done today are bearish in nature
- Bears anticipating $8-$8.50 by end of earnings week
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Large put purchase could be a macro hedge rather than LCID-specific bearish bet
- Stock recovered from intraday low — some buyers present
- Lucid can leverage AMP 2 Saudi facility to bypass some US tariff exposure
- Q4 earnings could be a positive catalyst if company hits expectations
The call
- Date said
- Feb 23, 2026
- Deadline
- May 15, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $9.44
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $6.25
- Return
- +33.8%
- Notes
- Target ≤$6.5 reached on 2026-04-25. Price: $6.25. Return: +33.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$6.5 reached on 2026-04-25. Price: $6.25. Return: +33.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.