SPXBullunverifiable
Randy KirkTarget Price
$8,350
“we've had the off year so we should be able to get 20% or more that would put us more like 83 8400 the thing is we are not in normal times”
Thesis at the time
BullishS&P could reach $8,300-$8,400 by year-end on AI-driven earnings growth (Q1 tracking ~27% vs. 12% expected), SpaceX and Anthropic IPOs adding trillions to indexes, and an improving macro backdrop. The off-year in 2025 (~15% return) sets up a return to 20%+ in 2026.
Key arguments
- Q1 S&P earnings tracking 27% vs. original 12% estimate
- SpaceX IPO at $2-3T plus Anthropic IPO add substantial weight to indexes
- FactSet raised Q1 earnings estimate; full-year now tracking above 20%
- AI productivity should drive multi-quarter earnings beats
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Three consecutive years of 20%+ S&P returns is historically rare
- Speaker openly hedges with 'I'm talking through my hat'
The call
- Date said
- May 7, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
- Notes
- No feed can price SPX — the call is recorded but cannot be scored.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
No feed can price SPX — the call is recorded but cannot be scored.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker offers a specific price range tied to year-end, but hedges with 'should be able to' and acknowledges talking off the cuff.
Source
Tesla Stock $1000; S & P $8300; Tarafab $119 B
Said on May 7, 2026Open on YouTube ↗