F bearish call by Randy Kirk

FBearunverifiable

“Part of the problem I see with Ford and others is they've spent a ton of money and they're years behind.”

Thesis at the time

Bearish

The hosts describe Ford's EV push as years behind Tesla, citing a $19.5 billion EV write-down and a 61% sales drop after the EV tax credit expired. While Ford's new Fathom truck copies Tesla's manufacturing playbook (structural battery, giga-casting, 48V), the hosts believe Ford remains structurally and culturally behind, with uncertain execution on cost discipline.

Key arguments

Ford lost $40,000-$50,000 per EV sold and took a $19.5 billion charge on EV investments in December 2025.
Ford's EV sales dropped 61% after the $7,500 federal EV tax credit ended in September 2025.
The new Ford Fathom truck copies Tesla's 2020 Battery Day architecture (structural pack, front/rear giga-castings, 48V, unboxed assembly) but is arriving roughly six years after Tesla pioneered these techniques.
Ford is spending $2 billion to retool its Louisville plant plus part of a $5 billion battery investment, but the hosts are skeptical Ford has adopted Tesla's cost-cutting culture.

Counter-arguments acknowledged

Ford's core pickup truck and Ford Pro commercial businesses remain profitable and are the company's 'bread and butter.'
The Fathom's targeted sub-$30,000 price could make it competitive if Ford executes well.

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

Ford's announced vehicle is a potential future product that may never reach production
Delivery timeline uncertain (early 2027 orders, mid-to-late 2027 deliveries are estimates)
Historical precedent of automakers announcing vehicles that never materialize
Video contains tangential discussion unrelated to core investment thesis