TSLABullpending
Curious PejjyTarget Price
$2,600
“2030 P of around 200 stock price of 2600 bucks per share or a market cap of 8.5 trillion hitting Elon's 8.5 trillion target.”@ 23:22 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla will transform from primarily an auto company to a diversified technology company driven by full self-driving, robotaxis, Optimus robots, and energy storage. The YouTuber believes these new revenue streams will justify massive valuation expansion despite high P/E ratios.
Key arguments
- Full self-driving and robotaxi revenue will reach over $120 billion combined by 2032
- Optimus robot sales will generate $40 billion in revenue by 2032
- Energy business will continue growing with data center and AI demand
- Tesla will become a 'cash machine' with EPS growing from $2 to $22 by 2032
- Multiple revenue streams reduce dependence on vehicle deliveries
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- High P/E ratios may not be sustainable
- Black swan events like wars or interest rate spikes could derail projections
- Regulatory challenges could slow robotaxi deployment
- Potential merger with SpaceX/xAI could change the entire analysis
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator explicitly states 'This is not financial advice'
- Described as 'just a prediction' and 'my conviction on these things'
- Acknowledged as conservative estimates on vehicle deliveries
- Predictions dependent on speculative future products (FSD, robotaxis, robots)
- Average selling price assumptions based on unproven Cybertruck mass production
- Government credits assumptions may not materialize as projected
The call
- Date said
- Feb 22, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $399.83
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$2,221.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Alternative 2030 target based on P/E ratio analysis, still very bullish