HIMSBullunverifiable
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium“I think they could do that by 2029, maybe even 2028 with a stretch goal, that's going to make this a great value stock and a growth stock.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTravis views Hims & Hers as the biggest holding in his portfolio, believing the company is deliberately sacrificing short-term margins to acquire subscribers and build a long-term healthcare aggregator platform. He argues the recent stock drop is a short-term overreaction to margin compression, while the underlying growth trajectory (accelerating revenue, subscriber adds, expanding treatment categories) is strengthening.
Key arguments
- Subscribers grew over 300,000 sequentially to 2.89 million, partly boosted by the Eucalyptus acquisition
- Monthly revenue per subscriber jumped from $8 to $92 due to GLP1 weight loss products via Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly deals
- Full-year revenue guidance raised to $3.1-3.3 billion from $2.8-3.0 billion, with 50%+ growth expected in the second half of 2026
- International expansion (Eucalyptus, Zava, Canada) is driving growth beyond the US market
- Customer acquisition economics improve over time as cumulative gross profit per customer builds each quarter, similar to software company lifetime-value models
- Long-term aggregator thesis: adding specialties like peptides and hormone health will keep expanding subscriber base toward 5-20 million
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Gross margin fell from ~80% to 63.8% due to lower-margin branded GLP1 products
- Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was cut from ~11% to 9%, and the high end of EBITDA guidance was reduced from $350 million to $325 million
- Legal reserves tied to an FTC issue are weighing on near-term margins
- Stock fell about 7% after hours and remained down roughly 2.8% pre-market on the margin disappointment
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Short-term market reaction negative despite long-term bullish thesis
- Margin compression expected due to customer acquisition cost investments
- Growth-versus-profitability trade-off creates investor uncertainty
- Presenter acknowledges tension between growth and near-term profitability
- Stock down 7% after earnings despite positive long-term outlook
The call
- Date said
- Aug 11, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2029, maybe 2028
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2029
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Heavily hedged with 'could', 'maybe', and 'stretch goal', indicating low commitment despite a directional bullish view on hitting revenue/EBITDA targets early.
Source
Hims & Hers DOWN 7%: Is This a Disaster? | $HIMS
Said on Aug 11, 2026Open on YouTube ↗