TSLABullunverifiable
Mark Spiegel“it looks like towards the second half of the year it's possible Tesla starts to look cheap again even at $1400 per share”@ 13:10 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe YouTuber strongly defends Tesla against short sellers, arguing that Tesla is becoming profitable with leverage after reaching break-even, has strong delivery growth despite pandemic disruptions, and will benefit from the Model Y launch and China factory production. They believe Tesla will achieve record deliveries and profits in Q3/Q4 2020.
Key arguments
- Tesla short interest has decreased 60% since mid-2019 as shorts cover positions
- Tesla was only down 5% in deliveries during pandemic while other automakers saw 30% drops
- Tesla beat delivery expectations by 25% despite global disruptions
- Giga Shanghai will contribute 30% increase to Tesla deliveries in 2020
- Tesla has achieved profitability and will gain leverage on each additional delivery
- Model Y launch targets the profitable SUV/crossover market segment
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Revenue growth has slowed compared to 2017-2018 doubling
- Tesla had to cut prices on Model 3
- Legacy automakers can subsidize EV losses with ICE profits
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- The video presents the perspective of short sellers but does not endorse their views
- The host criticizes short sellers for spreading negative rumors to profit from stock decline
- Short selling carries unlimited loss potential
- Past short seller predictions have been wrong (shorts recommended avoiding Tesla at $200, stock reached $1,400)
The call
- Date said
- Jul 9, 2020
- Timeframe
- towards the second half of the year
- Deadline
- Sep 30, 2020
- Price at prediction
- $92.95
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses weak language 'it's possible' and hedge words, showing uncertainty