HOODBullpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$156
“I actually think this tokenized exchange stuff could possibly pump this by somewhere around 20 to 30%... we might be at 156 bucks is sort of a fair value for Robin Hood.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin argues the SEC's new tokenized-stock exemption removes the requirement to give investors the best price, letting brokers like Robinhood earn much wider spreads on tokenized equities trading. He believes this could roughly double Robinhood's equities revenue and lift the stock's fair value well above its current price.
Key arguments
- SEC removed the NBBO 'trade-through' rule for tokenized stocks, allowing wider bid-ask spreads
- Robinhood could go from ~$300M to ~$600M in equities revenue if it captures a slice of tokenized volume at higher margins
- Robinhood already benefits heavily from options, crypto, and prediction-market order flow rebates
- This new revenue stream is not yet priced into the stock
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Estimates are based on incomplete data since Robinhood hasn't disclosed specifics
- The actual revenue uplift 'could end up being a whole lot more' or less — it's unclear
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges the argument sounds 'delusional' given markets near all-time highs
- Complexity of unified margin mechanics and tokenized asset implications not fully detailed
- Regulatory changes subject to future modification or legal challenge
- Leverage-based strategies carry significant volatility and margin call risks
The call
- Date said
- Sep 18, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $109.81
- Current price (live)
- $124.25$31.75 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Heavy hedging with 'could possibly' and 'might be' significantly weakens an otherwise specific price figure, and no firm timeframe is given.
Source
Trump's SEC Just Bailed Out ALL Stocks, Crypto, AND Robinhood.
Said on Sep 18, 2026Open on YouTube ↗