SPCXBearunverifiable
Stock Moe“I'm expecting a 3 to 5% drop after the unlock goes live. That's what I'm playing.”
Thesis at the time
MixedStock Moe frames SPCX as caught between a potential short squeeze and a looming supply flood from the August 6 share unlock. He is bullish on the underlying business execution (Starship, Starlink) but cautious on near-term price action due to dilution risk, cash burn, and falling Starlink revenue per user.
Key arguments
- 25.84% of the tiny 639 million share float is sold short and rising, which is squeeze fuel
- The August 6 unlock frees 911 million shares, a huge new supply overhang
- Revenue grew 33% to $19.3 billion but the company still posted a $9.4 billion net loss and trades at a rich 188x forward P/E
- Starlink revenue per user has fallen for four straight periods (99 to 81 to 66) even as subscribers grow
- AI/Grok compute buildout took 76% of Q1 capital spending and is the biggest source of losses
- He speculates SpaceX could eventually merge with Tesla, possibly starting the process in 2027
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The early-release trigger for bonus unlock shares already failed, reducing some incremental supply
- NASDAQ 100 inclusion means index funds must buy more shares as the float enlarges, partially offsetting unlock supply
- Starship flight 13 was a clean, fully successful mission, showing the core rocket business is executing well
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges uncertainty about whether unlocked shares will actually be sold
- Notes that share unlock extends through June 2027, not just August 6th
- Admits difficulty in predicting price direction after unlock
- Recognizes that retail investors would likely short on any spark
- Discloses personal trading history (sold IPO at $135-$200, profited on downside)
The call
- Date said
- Jul 31, 2026
- Timeframe
- after the August 6 unlock
- Deadline
- Aug 6, 2026
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Specific percentage magnitude tied to a concrete, near-dated catalyst (the unlock), reinforced by personal stake language ('that's what I'm playing').