PLTRBullpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$243
“This stock could potentially knock in the door of $250, more likely about 243 if you want to be a little bit more exact.”
Thesis at the time
MixedKevin discusses Palantir being blamed for a deadly targeting error in Iran involving its Maven software, calling the incident a tragedy while separately noting the stock still has valuation-based upside due to strong growth expectations. He expresses discomfort mixing the human tragedy with stock analysis and is uncertain whether he will keep holding shares.
Key arguments
- Palantir's Maven software condensed target vetting from hours to minutes, contributing to a strike that killed 123 children after outdated intelligence wasn't flagged.
- Palantir has a 'line out the door' of customers because of its reputation working with the US military and government on secure data.
- The stock trades at a rich 109x forward P/E, but Palantir's expected 47% growth rate over four years could justify further upside using a PEG-based valuation.
- Several former senior military officials now work for Palantir, which could help sustain government contract relationships.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The stock's forward P/E of 109x is very rich.
- Palantir denies responsibility for underlying data quality or identifying intelligence deficiencies, which Kevin calls a 'copout.'
- There may need to be more government competition for Palantir given its outsized influence.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Video presents allegations and blame-shifting narratives without definitive proof of Palantir's culpability
- Multiple parties are being blamed (Palantir, Pentagon leadership, outdated intelligence systems)
- The incident involves complex geopolitical and military decision-making factors beyond software
- No specific stock price prediction or investment recommendation is made
The call
- Date said
- Sep 19, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $177.64
- Current price (live)
- $184.99$58.01 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Valuation is based on a hypothetical PEG assumption ('if you give them a three peg at a 50% growth rate') and hedged with 'could potentially' and 'more likely,' indicating low conviction despite a specific number.
Source
Palantir BLAMED: 123 Children Deaths in Iran [Pentagon Failure]
Said on Sep 19, 2026Open on YouTube ↗