USOBearpending
Randy KirkTarget Price
$60
“I go back to the it's $82.50 for oil. Should be $60.”
Thesis at the time
BearishThe speaker argues that despite geopolitical noise around supply disruptions (e.g., the Strait), oil supply chains find ways around restrictions, so current prices are inflated. He believes oil is overpriced at its current level and should be trading lower.
Key arguments
- Supply chains find the path of least resistance despite reported blockages
- Multiple alternative routes (cargo planes, ships, escorted shipments) keep oil and materials flowing
- Current oil price of $82.50 is too high relative to fundamentals
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Government and monitoring firms report significant supply is still being restricted
- Data quality is uncertain due to transponders being turned off and other tracking issues
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges uncertainty in monitoring data and transponder accuracy
- Recognizes multiple variables affecting supply chains
- Notes that 'there's a lot of noise out there'
- Admits difficulty in determining exact government supply figures
The call
- Date said
- Aug 18, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $144.08$84.08 above target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker states a specific target price ($60) with fairly direct language ('should be'), but no timeframe or strong certainty words are given, and there's some hedging noise in the surrounding commentary.