The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$15
Said $1.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“there was 1.95 million in premiums towards it looks like a $150 put was purchased for January 15th, 2027”@ 5:28 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- May 21, 2025
- Extracted deadline
- Jan 15, 2027
- Interpreted confidence
- unspecified
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: deadline
- Notes
- The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Email me when LCID calls resolve
When a tracked LCID call is scored — hit, miss or partial — we’ll email you the result. No account needed.
Used only for these updates. Privacy
Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Lucid fell 6.42% today but largely alongside the market due to a weak 20-year bond auction that drove yields higher and crushed growth stocks. Shorts returned 2.5M shares (suggesting the move wasn't fully justified on the short side), but a major institutional options trade — $1.95M in premiums on a $1.50 put for January 15, 2027 — indicates big money sees significant downside risk over the medium term. Gravity production flyover showed 180 units (up from 70), which the speaker views as improving but not satisfying to the market.
Key arguments
- Big money bet $1.95M on a $1.50 January 2027 put — major bearish institutional signal
- 64% of options activity is bearish; total premium skewed toward downside
- 20-year bond auction weak (5.1% discount rate), reflecting reduced demand from China/Japan for US debt
- Shorts returned 2.5M shares (bullish signal) but were overwhelmed by institutional selling and algo trading
- Gravity flyover shows 180 units — production ramping but market not satisfied
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returning 2.5M shares signals today's decline wasn't justified
- Elliott Wave targets $3.40-3.61 as long as price stays above $2.45
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- May 21, 2025, 8:42 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:31 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before48.74
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before27.7
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-11-14
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$15 reached on 2025-11-14. Price: $14.20. Return: +48.7%.
AfterThe stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
- Outcome price
Before14.2
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $1.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Jan 15, 2027
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.