UBERBearunverifiable
Randy Kirk“But really, when the time comes, I don't know if anyone's going to buy them for any amount of money.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishRandy and Brian argue Uber lacks any durable competitive assets—drivers, riders, the app, and brand are all weak, disloyal, or replicable—leaving it exposed as autonomous rivals scale up. They conclude Uber's ride-hailing and delivery businesses will be undercut on price and reliability by cheaper robotaxi and robo-delivery services, casting doubt on the company's long-term survival or buyout value.
Key arguments
- Uber has no owned vehicles, no driver loyalty, and no rider loyalty
- Waymo already ended its Uber app partnership in Arizona because it no longer needs Uber's app
- Autonomous vehicles will undercut Uber's per-mile pricing dramatically
- Uber Eats is vulnerable to cheaper, tip-free autonomous delivery
- Restaurants are unhappy with Uber's cut, weakening the Eats business model
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Uber could pivot to partnering with other autonomous vehicle manufacturers to lower its costs
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges uncertainty with 'yes, no, and maybe' framing
- Speculative timeline ('might take five or 10 years')
- Relies on historical precedent (Google Graveyard) rather than certainty
- Admits 'I don't know' regarding Waymo's ultimate fate
- Discussion is analytical rather than investment recommendation
The call
- Date said
- Sep 16, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $71.43
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Contains explicit hedge language ('I don't know') that weakens an otherwise negative outlook on Uber's buyout prospects.
Source
Uber Doomer and Waymo, Way Less
Said on Sep 16, 2026Open on YouTube ↗