XRPBearunverifiable
Stock Moe“So if the 10-year goes back above 5%, crypto is in XRP, Bitcoin, all deep, deep, deep, deep trouble.”
Thesis at the time
BearishXRP dropped roughly 8% around the Fed decision, and Stock Moe warns that if the 10-year Treasury yield climbs back above 5%, XRP along with the rest of crypto would be in serious trouble. He does not offer a specific price target for XRP in the transcript.
Key arguments
- XRP lost about 8% around the Fed hike, described as 'horrible'
- A strong dollar and rising long-term yields are headwinds for high-risk assets like XRP
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Speaker acknowledges uncertainty about market direction ('Up, down, sideways')
- Admits 'history can't lead us exactly down the path because this is a very unique situation'
- Uncertainty about whether Fed is truly restrictive ('Barely. Maybe not. We don't know')
- Markets are pricing in two more hikes but speaker believes only one more likely
- Speaker states personal position ('I told you I wasn't selling anything') but this is not financial advice
The call
- Date said
- Sep 17, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $1.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on 10-year yield behavior, but stated with strong repeated language about the downside.
Source
XRP BITCOIN HOLDERS 🚨 FED JUST CHANGED EVERYTHING
Said on Sep 17, 2026Open on YouTube ↗