HOODBearpending
Financial EducationTarget Range
$72–$77
“If we get to that S&P down 10% plus, you might see hood with a seven in front of it. 72 77 something like that.”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker sees Robinhood as a cyclical, contrarian buy that becomes attractive only after significant market and crypto weakness, not at current levels with the S&P only down 4%. He would consider buying if the S&P fell 10%+, potentially at much lower share prices.
Key arguments
- 32% revenue growth was strong, but operating expenses grew faster than revenue (33% vs 32%)
- Provision for credit losses up 100% year-over-year, a concerning expense trend
- Prefers to buy Robinhood as a contrarian play when crypto and stocks are in bear markets, not near all-time highs
- Wants to see S&P 500 down 10%+ before starting to build a position
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A $135 million one-off gain flattered net income and EPS this quarter
- New credit card and banking pushes are unproven
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges significant market volatility and crashes in semiconductor stocks (down 25-85%)
- Discusses portfolio damage control during bearish periods
- Notes mixed market conditions with some stocks crashing while others rally
- References personal portfolio performance rather than guaranteed outcomes
The call
- Date said
- Jul 30, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $124.25$49.75 above target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Prediction is explicitly conditional on a 10%+ S&P decline and hedged with 'might', reflecting a scenario rather than a firm call.
Source
Im Going to LOAD THE BOAT on this Stock Now‼️
Said on Jul 30, 2026Open on YouTube ↗