NVDABullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“Why is Nvidia not a $300 stock? It's so ridiculous.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin suggests Nvidia is undervalued relative to its growth given constrained supply and extended runway from the AI bubble, though his exact price framing is unclear.
Key arguments
- Nvidia has said it would be doing double current business if not for supply constraints
- A coordinated AI spending slowdown to the level of current constraints doesn't actually reduce real demand for Nvidia chips
- Extending the runway of AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic extends estimates for Nvidia and AMD spending
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- It is a bubble and will eventually pop once the 'canary' (Anthropic profitability signals) dies
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges this is contrarian to popular online opinion
- Invites viewers to challenge his thesis in comments
- Presents multiple interpretations (marketing angle, regulatory angle) before settling on his own
- Describes some arguments as 'jaded' perspectives rather than his actual belief
The call
- Date said
- Sep 13, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $218.29
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
The statement is a rhetorical, ambiguous aside about valuation rather than a clear committed price target, so no target price is extracted.
Source
they're all wrong.
Said on Sep 13, 2026Open on YouTube ↗