HIMSBullunverifiable
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium“I think we could see this past 4 million, maybe even 5 million subscribers in 2027.”
Thesis at the time
BullishTravis argues the FTC lawsuit against Hims & Hers is a short-term headline, not a structural threat, and actually signals that the company is winning against incumbent pharma by disrupting the industry. He views the stock's 13% drop as a potential buying opportunity similar to the earlier Novo Nordisk lawsuit dip, citing the company's strong subscriber growth, transparent pricing, and small fines relative to its $2.4 billion revenue base.
Key arguments
- Big pharma is terrified of Hims & Hers becoming the 'front door' to healthcare, as shown by the peptide hearing and now the FTC lawsuit.
- The specific FTC allegations (billing before provider visit, difficult cancellation, data sharing) are not serious issues based on his personal use of the app.
- Comparable FTC fines against other digital health companies have ranged from $1.5 million to $10 million, which would be immaterial against Hims & Hers' $2.4 billion in revenue.
- The earlier Novo Nordisk lawsuit caused a similar stock drop that turned out to be a great buying opportunity.
- Regulatory and legal pushback from incumbents is itself evidence that Hims & Hers is winning market share, similar to taxis fighting Uber.
- Hims & Hers is the biggest position in his Asymmetric Investing portfolio.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- There could be a settlement or fine resulting from the lawsuit.
- The company may need to change some business practices as a result of the FTC action.
- The stock dropped over 10-13% on the news.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- FTC lawsuit involves three substantive claims: data sharing practices, charging before provider meetings, and difficult cancellation processes
- Investigation disclosed years ago with $15 million charge-off already taken
- Short-term stock volatility expected but characterized as noise rather than structural risk
- Comparison drawn to previous Nova Nordisk lawsuit that initially caused stock to crater but proved to be buying opportunity
The call
- Date said
- Jul 29, 2026
- Timeframe
- in 2027
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Hedge words 'could' and 'maybe' significantly reduce certainty despite a specific timeframe and numbers being given.
Source
Hims & Hers Stock ALERT! -- Everything You Need to Know
Said on Jul 29, 2026Open on YouTube ↗