SPYBullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“I actually think we still have a pretty decent uh a growth trajectory ahead of us for at least the next 6 months. I'm pretty bullish the next six months.”
Thesis at the time
MixedKevin relays Goldman Sachs' warning that AI-related depreciation drag and fading 'other income' from equity gains could slow S&P 500 earnings growth starting in 2027, creating headwinds over the next 12 months. Despite this caution, he remains bullish on the index for the next six months, citing low investor leverage and absence of euphoria as bullish signals.
Key arguments
- Goldman warns hyperscaler depreciation will offset nearly half of the capex-driven earnings boost starting in 2027
- Over $150 billion in 'other income' from equity investment gains lifted S&P 500 earnings in Q2 2026 but may diminish in 2027
- Goldman Private Bank clients are at only the 34th percentile for leverage, suggesting no euphoria and room for further gains
- Current earnings strength depends on semiconductor margin expansion, AI capex, and private investment gains that may not be sustainable
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Goldman itself frames this as caution, not an outright bearish call
- Consensus doesn't expect an earnings growth turn until 2028-2030, which could still be pushed further out
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Goldman Sachs framing these as 'headwinds' rather than bearish calls
- Analysis based on forward-looking depreciation estimates that may not materialize as predicted
- Host acknowledges earnings valuations are 'in line with 10-year average' on forward P/E basis
- Discussion of GPU price appreciation as unsustainable suggests speculative asset valuations
- Commentary focuses on 2027 specifically, implying near-term (12-month) caution rather than long-term bearishness
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2026
- Timeframe
- next six months
- Price at prediction
- $773.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Clear directional bullish statement in his own words, but softened by the hedge word 'pretty' and lack of a specific price target.