UBERBearunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I think they're completely cooked... Uber will exist but start to shrink.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishThe speaker believes Uber and other ride-share/robotaxi competitors are 'completely cooked' due to Tesla's superior cost structure and manufacturing scale, predicting Uber will shrink over time as Tesla's Cybercab platform takes over. He compares Uber's eventual decline to the fate of the flip phone once smartphones took over.
Key arguments
- Uber's ride-share model can't compete with Cybercab's dramatically lower cost per mile
- Uber will retain only a small niche of customers who prefer a human driver
- The decline will be slow at first and then happen 'all at once', similar to flip phones being replaced by smartphones
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Uber currently is a 'good generation one scale business' compared to traditional taxis
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Speaker acknowledges competitors won't be "cooked tomorrow" and decline will be gradual
- Admits uncertainty about actual per-unit costs for competitors
- Acknowledges small niche market will remain for human-driven services (Uber)
- Prediction timeline is vague ("slow at first, then all at once")
The call
- Date said
- Sep 18, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $70.87
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Certainty language ('completely cooked') with no specific price target or timeframe; strong directional conviction on the business, not a stock price.
Source
Tesla Is About To DESTROY The Robotaxi Competition
Said on Sep 18, 2026Open on YouTube ↗