CRMBullpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$500
“I've still got this at a 458. I think it could potentially get up to $500 on upside.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin is bullish on Salesforce, highlighting its strong free cash flow yield and management's aggressive debt-funded buyback strategy as evidence of conviction and value. He sees further upside potential from current levels.
Key arguments
- Bought Salesforce around $163-165 when free cash flow yield was roughly 13%
- Management borrowed $27 billion to buy back $25 billion of stock, a strong signal of conviction
- Current free cash flow yield remains strong at about 6.9%, above peers like Palantir (1%) and Broadcom (3%)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Cash flow is lumpy and should not be annualized, which could overstate the yield
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Wells Fargo's bearish stance is characterized as a potential 'screaming buy signal' by the presenter, suggesting contrarian positioning
- Presenter acknowledges Wells Fargo 'has a point' on hardware concerns despite maintaining bullish positioning
- Historical capex cycles show peaks followed by flat or slower growth, but sustainability of AI demand remains uncertain
- Broadcom's revenue doubling projections for 2027-2028 assume continued exponential AI adoption
- Presenter notes market may not be 'positioned for' a capex slowdown in 2028
- Distinction made between software (bullish) and hardware (cautious) within tech sector
The call
- Date said
- Sep 3, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $256.93
- Current price (live)
- $233.28$266.72 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price target given, but hedged with 'could potentially' and no timeframe specified.