The call, on record
LCID bullish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“Elliott wave technicals going into this upcoming week is rather optimistic so it does show based on this for it to hit between that 284 and $3 range”@ 9:20 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- May 4, 2025
- Extracted deadline
- May 9, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: deadline
- Notes
- The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
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Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The speaker previews Q1 earnings (Tuesday after hours) with focus on what truly matters: future guidance on Gravity ramp trajectory, tariff supply chain impact, and whether any licensing deals are close to announcement. Historical context shows Lucid's earnings have only been seen as positive twice (both Q2s). Key metrics (EPS -$0.23, revenue $247M) are secondary to forward guidance quality. Elliott Wave technicals target $2.84-$3 if $2.18 support holds. Shorts at 28.7% of float with 354M shares — higher than typical going into earnings.
Key arguments
- Market cares only about future guidance — Gravity ramp, tariff impact, licensing deals
- Historical earnings: only 2 of ~12 previous earnings seen as positive by market (both Q2)
- Implied move: 9.91% (~25 cents in either direction)
- Elliott Wave projects $2.84-$3 assuming $2.18 support holds
- Gravity needs to deliver ~9K units to complement ~11K Air to hit 20K target
- Analysts will hammer on tariff/supply chain, rare earth material sourcing, Nicola facility and midsize timeline
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Even if Lucid misses on EPS/revenue, good guidance could still push price higher
- EV sector is rate-sensitive; any rate cut signal would be broadly positive
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- May 4, 2025, 1:48 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before6.36
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before23.6
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-05-09
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeDeadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.10.
AfterThe stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
- Outcome price
Before25.1
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $3
- Stated deadline as extracted
- May 9, 2025
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.