QQQ bearish call by Meet Kevin

QQQBearunverifiable

“I do think that we are building the case for a really large bubble in the long term overbuilding in artificial intelligence compounded with tariff and geopolitical risks and high oil for a very long period of time.”

Thesis at the time

Mixed

Kevin explains JP Morgan's tactically cautious stance on tech-heavy stocks over the next few weeks due to Fed uncertainty and a reluctance among traders to re-leverage after a hawkish Fed speech. He personally believes the near-term recession risk is low but is building a longer-term thesis that AI overbuilding, tariffs, and high oil prices could compound into a larger bubble risk a few years out.

Key arguments

The Nasdaq-100 repeatedly rejected the 715 level intraday, showing underlying softness after a hawkish Fed speech from Kevin Worsh.
Traders are reluctant to lever up heading into the September Fed meeting, which JP Morgan sees as a near-term risk.
Long-term overbuilding in AI combined with tariff, geopolitical, and oil price risks could compound recession risk two to three years out.

Counter-arguments acknowledged

The imminent probability of a recession is estimated at only about 23%.
Underlying economic fundamentals are still considered strong by JP Morgan.

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

JP Morgan is only tactically bearish for the next few weeks, not strategically
Recession probability estimated at only 23% according to JP Morgan's measures
Underlying economic fundamentals remain strong
Host maintains a 7.1/10 bullish bias on the bull-bear scale
Long-term risks (AI bubble, tariffs, geopolitical tensions) may compound recession risk 2-3 years out
Host notes lack of releveraging in markets may limit downside
Uncertainty around September FOMC meeting and potential rate hike timing