NFLXBullpending
Financial EducationTarget Range
$134–$231
“My worst case scenario for Netflix has a stock going about 134 come 2030, right? And my best case scenario has a stock going about 231 in 2030.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe host is aggressively buying Netflix, citing strong free cash flow growth, expanding margins, pricing power, and early-stage ads and international growth opportunities. Using bull, base, and bear case valuation models, he projects the stock rising substantially by 2030, viewing it as one of the least risky big tech investments.
Key arguments
- Strong and improving free cash flow per share driven by rising operating income and falling share count
- Pricing power shown by ability to raise subscription prices without losing customers
- Advertising business still early-stage with significant long-term growth potential
- Bull case assumes 13% revenue growth and 18% net income growth with margins reaching 35% by 2030
- Base case assumes 11% revenue growth and 16% net income growth, still beating the S&P 500
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Past performance shown (ELF, NOW, CRM gains) does not guarantee future results
- Creator mentions running valuations and selling overvalued stocks as part of strategy
- Emphasis on 15-year time horizon, not short-term gains
- Acknowledges cost of living constraints and suggests flexible contribution amounts ($800-$1,000+ monthly)
The call
- Date said
- Sep 1, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Current price (live)
- $72.16$110.34 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Detailed valuation model with specific revenue/margin assumptions across bull, base, and bear cases, paired with aggressive personal buying activity, indicates high conviction despite the range format.
Source
4 Stocks to Go ALL IN September 2026‼️
Said on Sep 1, 2026Open on YouTube ↗