HOODBullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“Our stock AI indicated that Robin Hood had about a 9 to 10% upside, but now the stock has run roughly to where the fair value sits right now on our stock product.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin argues the SEC's new tokenized-stock exemption removes the requirement to give investors the best price, letting brokers like Robinhood earn much wider spreads on tokenized equities trading. He believes this could roughly double Robinhood's equities revenue and lift the stock's fair value well above its current price.
Key arguments
- SEC removed the NBBO 'trade-through' rule for tokenized stocks, allowing wider bid-ask spreads
- Robinhood could go from ~$300M to ~$600M in equities revenue if it captures a slice of tokenized volume at higher margins
- Robinhood already benefits heavily from options, crypto, and prediction-market order flow rebates
- This new revenue stream is not yet priced into the stock
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Estimates are based on incomplete data since Robinhood hasn't disclosed specifics
- The actual revenue uplift 'could end up being a whole lot more' or less — it's unclear
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges the argument sounds 'delusional' given markets near all-time highs
- Complexity of unified margin mechanics and tokenized asset implications not fully detailed
- Regulatory changes subject to future modification or legal challenge
- Leverage-based strategies carry significant volatility and margin call risks
The call
- Date said
- Sep 18, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $109.81
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
States a percentage upside figure from an internal model with moderate conviction but no absolute price target or timeframe.
Source
Trump's SEC Just Bailed Out ALL Stocks, Crypto, AND Robinhood.
Said on Sep 18, 2026Open on YouTube ↗