TTDBearpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$4
“I have this at like a $4 fair value estimate, which is really bad.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishKevin says his internal 'stock algo' now assigns The Trade Desk a fair value of roughly $4 per share, calling the outlook 'really bad' due to slowing revenue growth and surging costs. He cites a red flag from Netflix as the reason he sold the stock earlier at about $120 a share.
Key arguments
- Revenue is up only 3% while cost of goods sold increased 22%
- Margin trajectory has deteriorated sharply
- A red flag from Netflix prompted an exit at around $120/share
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Kevin says the company could still turn its margin trajectory around
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges potential manipulation by institutional players (Citadel/Leopold position)
- Notes 72.5% probability of rate hike this year could be headwind
- Recognizes potential inflationary pressures from trade war escalation with Canada
- Warns that Trump's lame duck status post-midterms could increase geopolitical disruption
- Earnings from NVDA, CRM, and CRWD could change market sentiment
- Jackson Hole commentary could shift rate hike expectations
The call
- Date said
- Aug 26, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $13.18$9.18 above target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Hedge word 'like' lowers certainty, but the specific dollar figure and detailed fundamental reasoning (revenue vs. COGS trend) add specificity.
Source
Why I'm Buying the Dip BIGLY
Said on Aug 26, 2026Open on YouTube ↗