The call, on record
TTD bearish call
Target Price
$4
Quoted text as recorded“I have this at like a $4 fair value estimate, which is really bad.”@ 12:03 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Aug 26, 2026
- Latest provider quote
- $13.52As of Nov 4, 2026, 5:19 PM UTC. May be delayed; does not resolve this call.
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Tracking the outcome
- Status
- pending
- Notes
- No stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
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Our summary of the thesis
Strongly BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Kevin says his internal 'stock algo' now assigns The Trade Desk a fair value of roughly $4 per share, calling the outlook 'really bad' due to slowing revenue growth and surging costs. He cites a red flag from Netflix as the reason he sold the stock earlier at about $120 a share.
Key arguments
- Revenue is up only 3% while cost of goods sold increased 22%
- Margin trajectory has deteriorated sharply
- A red flag from Netflix prompted an exit at around $120/share
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Kevin says the company could still turn its margin trajectory around
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges potential manipulation by institutional players (Citadel/Leopold position)
- Notes 72.5% probability of rate hike this year could be headwind
- Recognizes potential inflationary pressures from trade war escalation with Canada
- Warns that Trump's lame duck status post-midterms could increase geopolitical disruption
- Earnings from NVDA, CRM, and CRWD could change market sentiment
- Jackson Hole commentary could shift rate hike expectations
About this record
Not yet reviewed by a moderatorAI-extracted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Aug 26, 2026, 3:41 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Aug 26, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Not recorded
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- claude-sonnet-5
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Extraction pipeline version
- v1.0.0
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- awaiting_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 5 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Source moment (seconds)
BeforeNot recorded
After723
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
awaiting stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNot recorded
AfterNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterAwaiting stated deadline
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 6 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Why we interpreted the confidence this way
Hedge word 'like' lowers certainty, but the specific dollar figure and detailed fundamental reasoning (revenue vs. COGS trend) add specificity.