MUBearunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“Micron will crash shortterm because the market panics but we still have massive inference compute build out.”
Thesis at the time
MixedAsked how a pause on AI development would affect his Micron position, the host suggested Micron would see a short-term crash from market panic but would remain fine longer-term due to continued massive inference compute buildout. He views Micron as less exposed than Nvidia to any AI-pacing fallout.
Key arguments
- Micron seen as less affected than Nvidia by any AI training pacing/pause
- Expects a short-term crash from market panic if pacing escalates, but longer-term stability due to inference compute buildout
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Short-term panic-driven selling is acknowledged as a real risk
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges the debate about ASI existential risk requires deep knowledge to enter meaningfully
- Host notes that public statements about AI risk are moderated for credibility reasons
- Host states personal opinion (100% survival risk if true ASI developed) is not being officially pushed due to lack of general understanding
- Discussion is speculative about political and industry responses rather than definitive predictions
The call
- Date said
- Sep 12, 2026
- Timeframe
- short term
- Price at prediction
- $975.26
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
The call is conditional on an AI-pacing escalation scenario that has not been confirmed, and is immediately softened by a longer-term bullish caveat, reducing overall conviction.
Source
Why Elon's NEW WARNING About ASI Doom Is SERIOUS
Said on Sep 12, 2026Open on YouTube ↗