Brighter with Herbert“There's the stuff that shows up in the numbers this quarter... And then there's the stuff that moves up in the numbers next year and the year after, which is everything cyber cap.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe host frames this week's Tesla news—robotaxi crossing 1 million unsupervised miles, CyberCab pricing undercutting Model Y and Uber, FSD approvals expanding in Europe, and a NHTSA audit—as mostly confirming a long-term robotaxi-driven bull thesis for Tesla, while flagging the NHTSA audit and unconfirmed Optimus production rumors as near-term risks. He distinguishes between near-term auto business metrics (Q3 deliveries, China discounts, Berlin output) which he calls 'fine to okay,' and the CyberCab/robotaxi ramp which he views as the real long-term stock driver.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi unsupervised miles grew from 380,000 (Q2 call) to 1 million in about six weeks, implying a growth rate near 17% a week, faster than Tesla's own '10% a week' guidance
- CyberCab rider screenshots show it pricing 35-40% below Model Y and about half of Uber for the same trips, though Tesla has not published official per-mile rates
- CyberCab's efficiency (6.1 miles/kWh per Tesla's own figures) and low build cost support ARK's unconfirmed ~25 cents/mile cost projection versus ~70 cents to own a car
- FSD Supervised has been approved in six EU countries via Dutch mutual recognition, with an October 6th EU vote potentially extending approval to Germany, France, Italy and Spain
- Texas DMV registrations for CyberCab vehicles rose from 1 to 49 in about two weeks, used as a leading indicator for fleet ramp
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Waymo has 200 million autonomous miles versus Tesla's 1 million, though Tesla's growth rate from a small base is the more relevant comparison
- The NHTSA audit into CyberCab's self-certification could slow things if regulators decide some standards do apply, and 'fights with regulators take months'
- China retail sales were down 12.4% year-over-year for three straight months, with discounts framed as a quarter-end push rather than durable demand
- The Optimus 5,000-unit order is an unconfirmed supply-chain rumor from a Chinese outlet, not confirmed by Tesla
- Berlin plant is running under its 7,500/week target despite added shifts
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Stock dropped 6% on NHTSA audit news during the week
- Pricing data based on rider screenshots, not official Tesla rate cards
- Demand surge caused temporary price increases above Model Y, indicating supply constraints
- Comparison to Waymo's 200 million autonomous miles shows Tesla still behind on total volume
- NHTSA audit is ongoing and could impact operations
- FSD approval in Europe still pending
The call
- Date said
- Sep 12, 2026
- Timeframe
- next year and the year after
- Price at prediction
- $365.44
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Clear bullish long-term conviction on Tesla tied to robotaxi/CyberCab ramp, but no specific price target or exact date; some hedging around confirmed vs unconfirmed pieces.