LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“going into possibly Q4 or like I said kind of first half of 2025 you might see this drop dramatically from 17 to maybe where it was back in 2021 where it was at like 7%”@ 5:57 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker dismisses the insider sale of 89,000 shares by SVP Eric Bach as insignificant (4% of his position, all prior transactions were tax-related). The focus is on the upcoming SEC transparency rule requiring quarterly disclosure of short positions, which the speaker believes will prompt entities to close short positions rather than be publicly identified as shorting heavily - potentially cutting Lucid's short interest from ~28% back toward the 7% seen in 2021.
Key arguments
- Eric Bach sale of 89K shares (4% of position) is immaterial; all prior transactions were tax-related
- New SEC transparency rule expected Q4 2024 or H1 2025 will mandate quarterly short position disclosures
- Entities like TD Private Client hide shorts behind zero-share long disclosures - rule closes this loophole
- No institution wants to be publicly seen as shorting Lucid like Citadel shorting GameStop/AMC
- Short interest at 28% vs 7% in 2021 when Lucid was operationally weaker is illogical
- Shorts returned 924K shares on Friday, partially due to these dynamics
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- SEC rule has been delayed and timeline to Q4 2024 or H1 2025 uncertain
- Insider selling can be a negative signal in some interpretations
The call
- Date said
- Aug 17, 2024
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $31.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.