NVDABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“The strategic macro view on this whole field is as long as we see demand outstrip supply the entire trade in AI in Nvidia in memory in the neo clouds and everything is intact and my prediction is this is not going to end, it's going to instead explode further up.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe host argues that spot rental prices for Nvidia GPUs (B200, H100, H200) are rising sharply even as global compute supply expands, which he says proves AI demand is outstripping supply. He believes this trend confirms the broader AI trade, including Nvidia, remains intact and will keep climbing as adoption accelerates over the next 6-9 months.
Key arguments
- B200 rental price rose ~80% in 8 months and 21% in the last month despite massive new supply coming online
- Even six-year-old H100 chips are seeing rising prices, indicating demand is outstripping supply across all chip generations
- Only ~3-5% of businesses currently use AI meaningfully, leaving enormous room for demand growth once a clear breakthrough product emerges
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Michael Burry's short thesis that GPUs depreciate faster than assumed (host disputes this)
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Analysis based on emerging GPU rental marketplace data with limited historical precedent
- Acknowledges possibility of overbuilding and supply-demand imbalance as risk factors
- Speculative connection between compute pricing and stock performance not yet proven
The call
- Date said
- Sep 15, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $210.96
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong directional certainty language ('going to explode further up') but no specific price target or timeframe, and it's framed as conditional on demand continuing to outstrip supply.
Source
AI Compute Prices RISE: How SpaceX And Nebius Stocks Benefit
Said on Sep 15, 2026Open on YouTube ↗