TNXBullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“I actually think if they do not hike, the 10-year Treasury will jump up to 5.15.”
Thesis at the time
BearishKevin argues the Fed is very likely to hike rates due to strong super-core inflation, a stabilizing labor market, and Richmond Fed commentary on oil-shock policy responses. He warns that if the Fed fails to hike, the 10-year Treasury yield could spike sharply as inflation expectations become unanchored.
Key arguments
- Super core inflation annualized at 6.1% suggests oil-shock cost pressures are flowing through to core prices
- ADP weekly labor data shows a bullish stabilization, reducing the employment-side justification for holding rates
- Richmond Fed research argues central banks should act on oil shocks rather than look through them, given inflation-expectation risk
- White House signaling it will 'respect' the Fed's decision implies political cover for a hike
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A rate hike cannot literally increase the physical supply of oil
- The 27-week unemployment data has been flat, so recession risk from labor weakening is not currently a strong signal
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Empire Manufacturing Survey is volatile on a monthly basis
- ADP employment data is from private source, not government data
- Fed decision pending - analysis based on pre-decision data
- Historical labor market weakness noted at end of previous year
The call
- Date said
- Sep 15, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $4.96
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
The claim is explicitly conditional on the Fed NOT hiking ('if they do not hike'), which weakens conviction; no strong certainty language accompanies the number.
Source
The Fed's Rug Pull is 24 Hours Away.
Said on Sep 15, 2026Open on YouTube ↗