TSLABullunverifiable
Randy Kirk“If all these catalysts happen as I believe they're going to happen, it's going to be markedly higher, in the order of, you know, 20% and 100% higher.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishLarry Goldberg argues Tesla deliberately paused as a car company to rebuild itself around robotics and AI (FSD, robotaxi, Optimus), and that this multi-year transition is now approaching a series of catalysts that should re-rate the stock. He personally estimates a present-value target of roughly $1,700 for the end of next year, derived by discounting long-term bull-case estimates from other investors.
Key arguments
- Elon deliberately pivoted Tesla away from being a pure car company toward robotics and real-world AI (robotaxi, Optimus), causing a multi-year hiatus in growth.
- FSD unsupervised is expected around Q3 2027, which should drive a large jump in subscription revenue and be priced into the stock ahead of actual earnings.
- Robotaxi economics should become 'modelable' enough for Wall Street to stop treating it as pure narrative by mid-2027.
- Optimus doesn't need real revenue in 2027, but visible progress (deployment, evaluation) should start getting priced in by late 2027.
- Semi truck ramping toward a 50,000/year run rate by end of 2027 could provide a near-term EPS boost that offsets the longer robotaxi/FSD ramp.
- The company has funded this entire transition while remaining cash-flow positive and profitable without tapping capital markets.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Political backlash against Elon Musk has cost the company some business and investor goodwill.
- Car margins are thin (~20%), so increased vehicle sales alone won't move earnings much; subscription revenue matters more.
- There is genuine uncertainty ('no telling') about the timing and magnitude of the catalysts' impact on the stock price.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Discussion acknowledges a 'hiatus' period during company restructuring
- Caution advised against predicting stock performance around lock-up unlocks and rebalancing events
- Historical price comparisons (e.g., S&P inclusion peaks) noted as misleading benchmarks
- Analysis contingent on successful execution of robotics and AI strategy pivot
The call
- Date said
- Sep 21, 2026
- Timeframe
- over the next 12 to 15 months
- Price at prediction
- $364.27
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Framed as conditional on catalysts materializing, and immediately followed by 'there's no telling' regarding magnitude and timing, indicating low conviction despite stated belief.
Source
Tesla $1500 in 2027 Definitely in the Cards
Said on Sep 21, 2026Open on YouTube ↗