How I Use LEAP OPTIONS to WIN With Tesla Stock
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 80%
Overall Thesis
Jo Bhakdi walks through his empirical LEAPS pricing model that avoids the flawed Black-Scholes, then argues the decisive variable remains correctly predicting Tesla's share price. He expects TSLA plausibly returns to $480 by summer if robotaxi rollout works and could go over $500 in summer, with mid-2026 LEAPS looking unusually expensive due to time decay dynamics.
Narratives
TSLATesla
BullishTesla is likely to revisit prior all-time highs around $480-500 by summer if robotaxi rollout works; avoiding mid-2026 expirations and favoring shorter or longer-dated LEAPS maximizes risk-adjusted returns.
Key Arguments
- Empirical options matrix shows mid-2026 LEAPS have anomalously bad time decay - avoid them.
- Robotaxi rollout success is more likely than not and would push TSLA back to prior ATH of $488.
- If one failure in summer, probabilistically unlikely they fail again in fall - eventual success drives exponential upside.
- Black-Scholes is structurally wrong for out-of-the-money Tesla LEAPS; need empirical matrix instead.
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $480summer 2025
partialDetails
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —