My Tesla Stock STRATEGY for Nov 6th
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi predicts Elon's comp package will pass at 85%+ (99.98% probability overall) at Nov 6 Tesla shareholder meeting with no major sell-the-news risk if stock stays in 410-460 channel. He sees setup for Q4 year-end rally driven by Fed QE, rate cuts, unemployment pressure. If S&P hits 7,500, Tesla ends year over 500. Near-term tactical trading: short 490 calls and 435/425 short puts.
Narratives
Bhakdi expects shareholder meeting to pass Elon's $1 trillion comp package at 85%+, priced in so minimal move. Tesla in 410-460 trading channel. Sees upside risk greater than downside - breaking above 500 more likely than falling below 400. If S&P hits Fundstrat's 7,500 target, Tesla ends year over 500 comfortably. Macro tailwinds from Fed QE (Dec 1), rate cuts, and unemployment pressure support rally.
Key Arguments
- Elon comp package pass probability 99.98% - last similar package passed at 73% with 50% needed; now Elon+Kimbal add 15% votes
- Fed ending QT and starting QE December 1
- Rate cuts and unemployment pressure support bullish macro
- Fundstrat targets S&P 7,500 by year-end - 10% more upside
- Tesla should hit 500+ by year-end if S&P follows
- Trading channel firmly 410-460
- Charles Schwab caved and voted in favor of Elon's package after Tesla community pressure
- Upside risk from surprise catalysts at shareholder meeting