What is Happening w Lucid | USA demand INCREASING 11.5% y/y ⚠️ LCID Stock Analysis
Overall Thesis
Lucid is caught in a CPI-driven lose-lose scenario with the stock stuck below the Alma and being squeezed between the 100-day MA and Alma, but US EV demand up 11.5% YoY and China up 51% provide a positive macro backdrop for Lucid's 2025 growth trajectory.
Narratives
LCID is in a technical squeeze below the Alma, likely to produce an extreme directional move depending on tomorrow's CPI data. The macro backdrop is mixed: US EV demand up 11.5% YoY and China up 51% are positive long-term indicators, but Europe is slowing. Short interest at 19.19% with shorts adding 818K shares today. Options consensus shows calls above $3.50 this week and $4-$5 over coming weeks, but bears targeting sub-$2.50 and sub-$2.00 for next week suggesting CPI-driven downside fear. The speaker remains buyers of the dip thesis for longer-term holders.
Key Arguments
- US EV demand up 11.5% YoY and China up 51% — strong macro demand backdrop for 2025
- Europe EV demand declining for four consecutive months — potential concern for Lucid European ambitions
- Technical squeeze between Alma and 100-day MA imminent — will produce a large directional move
- Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas sell rating at $3 (7 days ago) keeps negative analyst overhang