⚠️ Wall Street’s Biggest EV Bets: Top 5 Most Shorted EV Stocks Over $100M
Overall Thesis
Analysis of the top five most heavily shorted EV stocks, examining short interest metrics, recent price performance, and upcoming earnings catalysts.
Narratives
NIO is up slightly over the past year but losing traction in the last month, with 6.36% of free float shorted. The analyst notes shorts have been slowly covering over the past month and a half without a clear catalyst, and considers current short positioning overextended.
Key Arguments
- Short interest has been slowly declining over the past month-plus
- Days-to-cover of 4.19 signals overextended shorts
- Two positive, one negative EPS revisions over the last 90 days
Li Auto is trading at $12.95, down significantly over the past year, with short interest slowly climbing to 5.08% of free float ahead of upcoming earnings. The analyst notes monthly numbers were disappointing and flags the upcoming earnings report as the next major catalyst.
Key Arguments
- Recent monthly delivery numbers were not strong
- Short interest has been slowly increasing from 4.38% to 5.08% of free float
- Days-to-cover of 6.22 signals shorts are overextended
Xpeng is down over the last year and month, with 6.5% of free float shorted and signs of possible naked short selling since shares shorted exceed shares on loan. The analyst views short interest as overextended ahead of earnings expected near the end of August.
Key Arguments
- Shares shorted (46.5M) exceed shares on loan (40.79M), suggesting naked shorting
- Days-to-cover of 6.41 indicates overextended short positioning
- Two positive, zero negative EPS revisions over the last 90 days
Rivian recently beat on both top and bottom line with somewhat okay guidance, and short interest has notably declined from 19.1% to 14.8% heading into earnings. The analyst points to broader market conditions and a potential rate cut as the next big catalyst for the stock.
Key Arguments
- Beat on both EPS and revenue in the latest earnings report
- Short interest declined sharply from 19.1% to 14.8%
- Days-to-cover of 4.39 suggests shorts remain overextended
Lucid is down 67.5% over the past year but up 10.5% over the past month after being linked to bankruptcy rumors, and short interest has been declining from 38% to 31.9%. The analyst notes the company missed on earnings and pulled guidance, but points to declining short interest and limited available shares to borrow as potential setups for buying pressure.
Key Arguments
- Short interest fell from about 38% to 31.9% since July 17th
- Days-to-cover of 3.13 signals shorts remain overextended
- Only about 800,000 shares available to borrow through IBKR
Hedges & Caveats
- Video focuses on short interest data and technical metrics rather than investment recommendations
- Earnings estimates and revisions are subject to change
- Short interest levels can shift rapidly
- DTC (days to cover) calculations based on current average volume
- Naked shorting concerns noted for XPEV but not confirmed