Behind the video
Why SpaceX Stock Will Be Hitting a WALL
Overall Thesis
SpaceX stock is hitting a technical resistance wall at $135 due to selling pressure from the 900 million share unlock, despite long-term bullish fundamentals.
Narratives
TSLATeslaThe host describes himself as 'extremely bullish' on Tesla, having re-entered a full core position and used margin to add shares, citing robotaxi rollout progress, FSD development, and AI fleet management leadership as long-term catalysts. He expects the stock to bounce back toward $360 in the near term after recent weakness.
Key Arguments
- Robotaxi rollout is on track even if slower than hoped
- Tesla will lead AI fleet management software, which unlocks scale once FSD works
- Diversifying capital between Tesla and SpaceX makes sense at current 'cheap' prices
- He re-entered his full core Tesla position and even used margin to add more
Risks acknowledged
- People are currently very negative on Tesla without strong reasons, per his view
- Robotaxi progress 'takes a little while' and isn't happening as fast as some expect
The host is fundamentally very bullish on SpaceX long-term due to its compute/Starlink buildout and revenue potential, but believes the stock faces a short-term 'selling wall' around $135 because a 900-million-share lockup unlock is creating latent seller pressure at that psychological IPO-price level. He expects roughly 10 trading days of resistance before the stock can break higher.
Key Arguments
- A 900 million share unlock (roughly 150% of prior float) created a large pool of shares owned mostly by employees
- Employee shareholders told him they won't sell below $135 (the IPO price) even though they eventually need to diversify
- He estimates around 200 million shares sit with informal sell limits near $135, creating a 'wall' expected to take about 10 trading days to clear
- Fundamentally bullish based on the compute buildout and expected margins/revenue from Starlink and related businesses
- Believes further unlocks after the stock clears $135 will cause only smaller, temporary pullbacks
Risks acknowledged
- Elon Musk tends to exaggerate targets (e.g., 10 gigawatts is 'definitely impossible next year'); more realistic bull case is ~5 gigawatts by 2027
- A surprise catalyst (e.g., a large compute deal announcement) could break through the selling wall faster than expected
- Valuation is already rich relative to comparable companies like Nvidia or Micron on a scaled basis
Hedges & Caveats
- Presenter acknowledges being 'super bullish on the stock' long-term while skeptical on 'very tactical future'
- Analysis based on qualitative research from only three interviewed shareholders
- Presenter emphasizes importance of 'being realistic' despite bullish sentiment
- Short-term technical resistance does not negate long-term company potential