Will Tesla Stock CRASH this week? DeepSeek + Earnings Threat!
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi analyzes the DeepSeek disruption that is cratering Nvidia and the NASDAQ, argues the market is wrong and Nvidia looks appetizing because intelligence demand is not constrained, and he is open to diversifying slightly by adding Nvidia. On Tesla, he is neutral around earnings week (not playing earnings), noting Tesla is disconnected from the NASDAQ and that odds of going to 360 are roughly equal to going to 440, so he will hold the core position and may only sell far-out-of-the-money strangles for income.
Narratives
Bhakdi is neutral going into Tesla earnings, expecting limited surprises because the stock has been disconnecting from the NASDAQ amid political-news noise, and sees roughly symmetric odds of a move to 360 or 440.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is non-correlated with the NASDAQ this week despite heavy NASDAQ drop on DeepSeek news.
- He will not play earnings with options or leverage and will keep the entire core position.
- Robotaxi pilot timeline is a downside risk if Elon signals delay; affordable model confirmation could be modest upside.
Nvidia looks attractive after a 16% DeepSeek-driven drop because cheaper intelligence leads to more demand for compute, not less.
Key Arguments
- Intelligence demand is not supply constrained; cheaper models mean customers buy more compute.
- Wall Street misreads the DeepSeek news due to lack of technical depth.
- Current levels may be an interesting accumulation entry.