Behind the video
3 Insanely Cheap Stocks I OWN!
Overall Thesis
The host argues that Lyft, Uber, and MGM are overlooked holdings with low valuations, growing businesses, and opportunities for improving profitability and valuation multiples. He expects autonomous vehicles to support the ride platforms and MGM Japan to provide substantial long-term upside.
Narratives
LYFTLyftThe host views Lyft as deeply undervalued relative to its growth, free cash flow, and net cash position. He expects its taxi distribution, international expansion, and autonomous vehicle partnerships to preserve its relevance as transportation becomes autonomous.
Key Arguments
- Forward earnings and free cash flow multiples are approximately eight and five, respectively.
- Bookings, active riders, and ride volumes continue growing.
- Free Now provides a European taxi distribution network that could transition to autonomous fleets.
- Positive free cash flow and net cash support acquisitions and strategic flexibility.
- Its rider base could make Lyft attractive to an autonomous vehicle acquirer.
Risks acknowledged
- Tesla and other autonomous networks could push Lyft into a weaker competitive position.
- Insurance reserves introduce variability into free cash flow.
- The stock has declined approximately 25% over the past year.
Predictions (1)
UBERUber TechnologiesThe host expects Uber to remain a leading aggregator of transportation demand as autonomous vehicles proliferate. Growing mobility and delivery bookings, users, and trips support his view that autonomy can strengthen rather than disrupt the business.
Key Arguments
- Mobility and delivery bookings have compounded at approximately 22% and 19%, respectively.
- Monthly users and total trips continue increasing.
- Autonomous vehicle developers need access to Uber's large demand network.
- A platform offering multiple autonomous vehicle types could appeal to customers.
- Revenue-accounting headwinds could become favorable comparisons in 2027.
Risks acknowledged
- Freight bookings have declined.
- Accounting changes temporarily pressure reported revenue.
- Tesla and other leading autonomous developers may operate their own networks.
- Uber has more leverage than Lyft and its stock has fallen over the past year.
MGMMGM Resorts InternationalThe host argues that MGM's existing cash generation and substantial repurchases make its shares attractive at low valuation multiples. He expects the market's recognition of MGM Japan's potential ahead of its planned 2030 opening to drive a stock turnaround.
Key Arguments
- Forward enterprise value to EBITDA is below eight and price to free cash flow is approximately five.
- Existing resorts generate cash that supports share repurchases and growth investment.
- China and online gaming provide additional growth opportunities.
- MGM Japan could generate substantial earnings, with Marina Bay Sands used as a profitability comparison.
- The host argues that MGM's 44% Japan stake could eventually be worth its current market capitalization.
Risks acknowledged
- Las Vegas revenue has declined somewhat from post-pandemic highs.
- Regional casinos are not a high-growth business.
- Japan investment has reduced recent repurchases.
- Singapore and Japan have different tax and operating rules.
- The proposed corporate acquisition appeared difficult to finance and structurally unattractive.
Hedges & Caveats
- Autonomous competition could threaten Lyft if it falls behind competing networks.
- Lyft's free cash flow can fluctuate with insurance reserves.
- Uber faces temporary revenue-accounting headwinds and declining freight bookings.
- Las Vegas revenue has softened following the post-pandemic surge.
- MGM Japan profitability estimates depend on different taxes and operating rules from Singapore.
- MGM's proposed acquisition faced financing and structural difficulties.