SKYROCKETING STOCK MARKET: Meta, AMD, Agentic Compute & IRAN ?!?!?!
Overall Thesis
Market rallying strongly on agentic compute trends with Meta surging 12.5% and tech stocks benefiting from increased cybersecurity demand.
Narratives
Kevin briefly comments on a new Form 4 filing showing Ryan Cohen buying more GameStop shares, joking that the company now functions more like a cash fund than an operating retailer, without offering a directional price view.
Key Arguments
- Ryan Cohen continues accumulating GME shares per insider filing
Kevin notes CrowdStrike rallying alongside the broader agentic AI compute trade, framing increased agentic AI adoption as a driver of greater cybersecurity spending.
Key Arguments
- More agentic compute usage increases the need for cybersecurity solutions
Kevin highlights Meta's 12.5% single-day rally driven by its new Muse AI agent topping App Store charts, notes he holds a six-figure position and has been aggressively buying the dip, and argues Meta is still 'dirt cheap' with substantial room to run toward much higher price levels.
Key Arguments
- Muse AI app rocketed to #1 free app on the App Store, driving advertiser and user growth
- Meta is both a buyer of AI compute (AMD/Nvidia GPUs) and a beneficiary of AI productivity gains
- Six-figure personal/fund exposure and active dip-buying alerts sent to members
- Company still has ~$15B free cash flow despite heavy AI capex
Predictions (1)
Kevin is bullish on AMD's ramp into data-center CPUs and its warrant deals with Meta and OpenAI, but flags the stock as short-term overbought and says he would not add at current levels despite still seeing further upside based on relative valuation versus Nvidia.
Key Arguments
- Gross margins jumped from 39.8% to 53.7% on data center mix shift
- Issued warrants to Meta and OpenAI tied to GPU purchase milestones
- Revenue growth projected at 72% with $88B target by full year
- Trades at ~1.5-1.6x PEG vs Nvidia's ~0.7-1x, implying relative upside
Kevin argues Nvidia is 'dirt cheap' relative to AMD on a PEG basis and is quietly becoming a serious CPU competitor, projecting it will be the first company to reach a $10 trillion market cap.
Key Arguments
- PEG ratio near 0.7-1x vs AMD's 1.5-1.6x
- $334B in supply commitments vs AMD's $30B
- Guiding to $20B of CPU sales in 2026, entering AMD's turf
- 75% gross margin and 62% net margin far exceed AMD's
Kevin says he called a 'peak fear' bottom in mid-September tied to Iran de-escalation hopes and falling yields/oil, has been buying dips at tracked technical levels, and expects continued strength through the midterms with new all-time highs targeted by Black Friday.
Key Arguments
- Peak fear thesis based on declining oil prices and falling 10-year yields
- Iran 'taco' deal expectations easing geopolitical risk
- Technical levels (700, 715, 725, 735) held as support during the rally
- Publicly tweeted 'stock market is about to skyrocket' on September 12th
Kevin mentions Cloudflare rising alongside CrowdStrike as part of the same agentic AI-driven cybersecurity demand narrative, without giving a specific price call.
Key Arguments
- Agentic compute growth is seen as bullish for cybersecurity-adjacent names like Cloudflare
Hedges & Caveats
- Host acknowledges rapid price movements and volatility
- Discussion of short-selling dynamics and market manipulation concerns
- Mentions geopolitical uncertainty (Iran-US negotiations) affecting markets
- Host expresses excitement about personal portfolio gains but cautions against speed of moves