Major Earnings: Marvell, Iren, Autodesk, Affirm, Workday Stock
Overall Thesis
Kevin discusses upcoming earnings reports for multiple tech and software companies while noting a potential software sector bottom based on recent breakouts and positive price action.
Narratives
Kevin sees renewed strength in Nvidia and the broader AI hardware trade after a period of stagnation, framing the current move as the start of a second wave of the hardware rally. He notes Nvidia reclaiming the $227 breakout level and strong earnings-call commentary on demand and circular financing clarity.
Key Arguments
- Nvidia recovered and closed over the $227 breakout level
- Michael Burry reportedly closed his hedge against Nvidia
- Strong guidance and clarity on circular financing from the earnings call is being rewarded
- Believes the AI hardware trade is just getting started on a 'second rally'
Predictions (1)
Kevin expects the S&P 500 to keep extending gains over the next six months once Jackson Hole uncertainty clears, pushing back against Bank of America's bearish year-end target. He frames the Fed's Jackson Hole remarks as a near-term catalyst for continued upside.
Key Arguments
- Expects Jackson Hole fear to clear after Fed remarks, allowing the market to keep extending
- General optimism among market participants for the S&P 500 over the next six months
Predictions (1)
Autodesk beat on Q2 revenue and margins with double-digit growth in Design and Make segments, suggesting AI is not eroding subscriptions, but a Q3 adjusted EPS forecast miss of 2.7% disappointed investors. Kevin felt the roughly 8% stock decline was an overreaction given the underlying growth still showing up.
Key Arguments
- Q2 revenue beat by ~2%, operating margin beat (41% vs 39.3% expected)
- Revenue up 16% year-over-year, billings up 10%, no sign of AI destroying demand
- Q3 adjusted EPS guidance missed by 2.7%, driving disappointment
Ulta beat on fiscal-year operating income growth and increased its buyback authorization, but comparable sales growth slowed to roughly 3.8%, which Kevin flagged as notably low even though the stock rose modestly on the print.
Key Arguments
- Fiscal-year operating income growth beat (8.8% vs ~7.75% expected)
- Buyback authorization increased to $1.8B from $1.5B
- Comp sales growth slowed to 3.8%, seen as weak
- Gross margin held around 39%
Kevin describes buying Salesforce in the low $160s as it fell toward $146, believing the software sector was bottoming, and now points to a clean technical breakout out of a downtrend channel as validation. He frames this as an example of building a position before a broader market catch-up rally.
Key Arguments
- Bought shares in the low $160s range as the stock fell to $146
- Sees a clean breakout out of a multi-month downtrend channel
- Views this as evidence software stocks are bottoming broadly
Kevin walked through Marvell's Q2 earnings in detail, noting modest beats on revenue and EPS with sequential acceleration in gross profit and operating income, but flagged that the real catalyst is likely the October 6 analyst day rather than this earnings report. He did not stake out a personal price target, noting the Street's $18B revenue guess is a third-party call.
Key Arguments
- Q2 revenue and EPS beats were small (~1.1% and <1%)
- Sequential and year-over-year acceleration seen in gross profit (44% YoY) and operating income (58% YoY)
- Free cash flow yield around 1.7%, seen as unremarkable
- October 6 analyst day flagged as the bigger potential catalyst, not this earnings report
Workday posted a Q2 adjusted EPS beat and a fiscal-year operating margin beat, but fiscal-year subscription revenue guidance came in essentially flat/nominally light versus expectations. Kevin noted the stock gave up its earlier daily gains after the print, calling the price action volatile.
Key Arguments
- Q2 adjusted EPS beat by 5.3%
- Fiscal-year operating margin beat (31% vs 30.5% expected)
- Fiscal-year subscription revenue guidance was a negligible ~0.05% miss
- $4 billion in buybacks authorized
Affirm beat on Q1 revenue and reiterated similar gross merchandise volume growth for fiscal 2027 versus 2026, which Kevin viewed positively as the stock jumped nearly 10% on the reiteration. He noted the stock has recovered massively (~10x) from its 2022 lows.
Key Arguments
- Q1 revenue beat by ~2.9% at midpoint
- Gross merchandise volume of $64B beat the $63.92B expectation
- Reiterated similar 2027 revenue growth versus 2026
- Stock up ~9.6% on the print
Kevin highlights Palantir's pricing power and exclusivity as reasons investors are drawn to the stock, while cautioning that its valuation looks expensive mainly because it recently transitioned from losses to profitability, which distorts ratio-based valuation.
Key Arguments
- Massive pricing power and exclusivity driving investor demand
- Valuation ratios look inflated partly because of the recent transition from losses to profit
Hedges & Caveats
- Kevin acknowledges uncertainty about exact bottoming points in stocks
- Discussion of technical chart patterns without guaranteed predictive power
- Earnings results are pending and could change market sentiment