Moe warns that a finishing candle below $77,159 would trigger a sharp Bitcoin decline. He nevertheless maintains his cycle-based expectation that crypto will bottom in October or November before an eventual recovery.
Bitcoin has formed a bearish 13/50 EMA crossover and is bouncing to test the 5 EMA; Moe expects a move to a new lower low and warns of accelerated downside if the 77,226 level breaks.
The host warns that Bitcoin could fall toward $72,000 if roughly $78,000 moving-average support fails, with a further decline into the $50,000s if the next support also breaks. He balances those risks with tentative hopes for a crypto bottom in October or November and a subsequent recovery after election uncertainty clears.
Bitcoin has suffered substantially more than technology shares during the policy cycle. The host sees a possible rally if only one or two additional hikes remain, but continued inflation and tightening threaten that recovery.
BullishOct 28, 2026Source Bitcoin anchors the host's bullish cryptocurrency recovery thesis because its June low has survived subsequent pullbacks. He views payment usage and the established rebound as supportive, while acknowledging that a new cycle is not guaranteed.
BearishOct 26, 2026Source The host views Bitcoin's five-period moving-average crossover below its 50-period average as a bearish warning. He predicts a substantial decline if Bitcoin loses 79,200 but does not commit to a 59,000 target.
BullishOct 25, 2026Source The host expects Bitcoin to rally over the next 24–48 hours as it rebounds around the 50-period moving average. The forecast rests on a long lower wick and a gap from the five-period average despite declining shorter averages.
BullishOct 16, 2026Source The host argues that Bitcoin's historical cycle could finish its weak phase around October or November and then turn bullish. This is framed as a conditional repetition of prior cycles.
BullishOct 13, 2026Source The host expects Bitcoin to resume rising if it clears $83,569, supported by its rebound and tightening Bollinger Bands. He also tentatively expects dollar-cost averaging over the next ten years to produce rewarding returns, while questioning whether to initiate a position.
Strongly BullishOct 10, 2026Source The host expects Bitcoin's gap fill to lead to another advance, supported by bullish weekly technicals. From approximately $82,263, he projects the $90,000s by the end of February and discusses a faster year-end approach toward $100,000.
The host expects Bitcoin to rise alongside gold and sees substantial upside if it gains adoption as a store of value. He calls Bitcoin's valuation model comparatively defensible but questions the feasibility of the largest third-party targets and clarifies that he does not currently hold it.
The host conditionally expects Bitcoin and the broader crypto market to begin another strong advance in October or November if historical cycle behavior repeats. He explicitly acknowledges uncertainty about whether that cycle will occur.
The host acknowledges a major short squeeze in Bitcoin, noting it traded above $85K for the first time since January amid hundreds of millions in short liquidations. However, he tempers this by saying he is only bullish on the broader crypto market through the end of the month, flagging Fed hiking and weak ETF inflows as risks.
Stock Moe reviews multiple Fed hiking cycles and finds Bitcoin's reaction has been inconsistent, sometimes rising and sometimes falling after the first hike. He explicitly declines to give a rate-based price prediction but warns that a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% would be very bad for Bitcoin.
Stock Moe examined five prior death-cross events to argue the current weekly death cross is a weak bearish signal (40% historical hit rate for marking bottoms) compared to the 200-day reclaim pattern, which has a 3-for-3 record of marking major cycle lows. He believes crypto winter is likely thawing rather than definitively over, expecting a bottom before year-end.
NeutralAug 14, 2026Source Stock Moe views Bitcoin as range-bound in a channel since early July, saying he wouldn't get nervous unless it breaks below the 60K area. He also flags Michael Saylor's lack of buying as a downward pressure factor and expects an eventual capitulation dump before winter ends around October or November.
BearishAug 12, 2026Source Stock Moe argues that Strategy (Michael Saylor's company) halting its Bitcoin purchases and now selling roughly $109 million worth removes a key source of price support, which he believes will push Bitcoin down toward the $40,000-$50,000 zone by the end of the crypto winter. He frames this as validating a call he made previously based on Saylor's own past comments about where BTC would trade without corporate buying.
BearishAug 11, 2026Source Stock Moe flags that Bitcoin just lost a key support level near $64K and is currently trading around $63,571, and he expects a further test of roughly $62,752 within the coming week. He notes Bitcoin usually leads crypto markets and its current weakness is a bad sign for the broader space.
