Behind the video
10 Days To Cybercab Launch - My Tesla Stock Game Plan
Overall Thesis
Tesla stock is dramatically undervalued ahead of the Cybercab launch in 10 days, with a fair value target of $700+ by 2026 and expected returns to all-time highs by year-end.
Narratives
BTCBitcoinJo holds a large personal Bitcoin position from an early purchase and remains fully bullish, viewing it as a long-term holding rather than a trading vehicle.
Key Arguments
- Holds Bitcoin since an early purchase around $600 and continues to hold rather than trade it
Predictions (1)
TSLATeslaJo believes Tesla is dramatically undervalued heading into the Cybercab commercial launch in Austin, citing years of tracked FSD/robotaxi progress, regulatory approvals in states like Nevada, and Waymo's inferior cost structure. He is running a highly leveraged short-put options strategy into the launch event while acknowledging macro risks (bonds, Iran, Fed) could disrupt the trade.
Key Arguments
- Cybercab commercial launch is confirmed for September 3rd in Austin after years of tracked progress
- Tesla applied for and received approval for 5,000 robotaxis in Nevada versus Waymo's 1,000, showing Waymo cannot scale
- Waymo's hardware costs ~$20,000-$55,000 more per car than Tesla's, giving Tesla a durable cost advantage
- Stock is currently just closing a gap from the pre-earnings drop, not yet pricing in the launch catalyst
- Long-term, robotaxi is described as the biggest cash cow once it scales and will re-rate the stock once financials reflect it
Risks acknowledged
- Macro risks including rising bond yields, Japanese carry trade unwind, Iran sanctions, and Nvidia earnings could hurt the trade
- The launch event could be a 'sell the news' event if the stock runs too far (e.g., to 420) beforehand
- By ~2030 autonomy could be commoditized and Chinese makers like BYD/Xpeng may erode Tesla's hardware cost advantage
GOOGLAlphabet (Waymo)Jo argues Waymo is far behind Tesla's Cybercab in scalability and cost, calling it effectively dead in the water as a competitor despite receiving regulatory approvals of its own.
Key Arguments
- Waymo only applied for 1,000 robotaxi approvals in Nevada versus Tesla's 5,000, showing Waymo can't scale
- Waymo's hardware costs remain far higher (~$55,000+ per car) than Tesla's approach (~$1,000 in cameras plus compute)
NVDANvidiaJo expects Nvidia to beat earnings expectations and views any market panic around AI as overblown, though he treats the report as a macro risk event for Tesla's trade.
Key Arguments
- Expects Nvidia to beat on earnings as it has consistently done
- Views AI trade concerns as psychological overreaction rather than fundamental weakness
Risks acknowledged
- Any earnings miss or negative surprise could spark a broader AI-related market panic
ETHEthereumJo is bullish on Ethereum, framing it as key infrastructure for the tokenization of finance, and expects meaningful upside though without a specific target.
Key Arguments
- Views Ethereum as the 'rails' for the ongoing rebuild of the financial system via blockchain adoption
- Believes institutional adoption of Ethereum is growing
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Creator acknowledges past prediction error on May Cybercab launch timing
- Fair value model described as 'midpoint' with range implied but not fully detailed
- Valuation model update promised for later in the week, suggesting current analysis is preliminary
- Creator notes previous incorrect timing on Q2 earnings impact