10 Days To Cybercab Launch - My Tesla Stock Game Plan
Overall Thesis
Tesla stock is dramatically undervalued ahead of the Cybercab launch in 10 days, with a fair value target of $700+ by 2026 and expected returns to all-time highs by year-end.
Narratives
Jo holds a large personal Bitcoin position from an early purchase and remains fully bullish, viewing it as a long-term holding rather than a trading vehicle.
Key Arguments
- Holds Bitcoin since an early purchase around $600 and continues to hold rather than trade it
Predictions (1)
Jo believes Tesla is dramatically undervalued heading into the Cybercab commercial launch in Austin, citing years of tracked FSD/robotaxi progress, regulatory approvals in states like Nevada, and Waymo's inferior cost structure. He is running a highly leveraged short-put options strategy into the launch event while acknowledging macro risks (bonds, Iran, Fed) could disrupt the trade.
Key Arguments
- Cybercab commercial launch is confirmed for September 3rd in Austin after years of tracked progress
- Tesla applied for and received approval for 5,000 robotaxis in Nevada versus Waymo's 1,000, showing Waymo cannot scale
- Waymo's hardware costs ~$20,000-$55,000 more per car than Tesla's, giving Tesla a durable cost advantage
- Stock is currently just closing a gap from the pre-earnings drop, not yet pricing in the launch catalyst
- Long-term, robotaxi is described as the biggest cash cow once it scales and will re-rate the stock once financials reflect it
Jo argues Waymo is far behind Tesla's Cybercab in scalability and cost, calling it effectively dead in the water as a competitor despite receiving regulatory approvals of its own.
Key Arguments
- Waymo only applied for 1,000 robotaxi approvals in Nevada versus Tesla's 5,000, showing Waymo can't scale
- Waymo's hardware costs remain far higher (~$55,000+ per car) than Tesla's approach (~$1,000 in cameras plus compute)
Jo expects Nvidia to beat earnings expectations and views any market panic around AI as overblown, though he treats the report as a macro risk event for Tesla's trade.
Key Arguments
- Expects Nvidia to beat on earnings as it has consistently done
- Views AI trade concerns as psychological overreaction rather than fundamental weakness
Jo is bullish on Ethereum, framing it as key infrastructure for the tokenization of finance, and expects meaningful upside though without a specific target.
Key Arguments
- Views Ethereum as the 'rails' for the ongoing rebuild of the financial system via blockchain adoption
- Believes institutional adoption of Ethereum is growing
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Creator acknowledges past prediction error on May Cybercab launch timing
- Fair value model described as 'midpoint' with range implied but not fully detailed
- Valuation model update promised for later in the week, suggesting current analysis is preliminary
- Creator notes previous incorrect timing on Q2 earnings impact