What was said about Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index

The host expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise further as Fed tightening and government spending maintain upward pressure on rates. His bullish yield outlook translates into a bearish assessment of housing affordability and rate-sensitive investments.

Kevin expects the payroll miss and weak wage growth to drive 10-year Treasury yields lower. He interprets the report as sharply reducing the likelihood of an October rate hike, although he still sees a possible December hike.

Kevin expects the 10-year Treasury yield to be near its peak and eventually decline. He suspects Japanese repatriation is driving abnormal upward pressure, although he acknowledges that yields have already moved above his earlier peak call.

Kevin argues the Fed is very likely to hike rates due to strong super-core inflation, a stabilizing labor market, and Richmond Fed commentary on oil-shock policy responses. He warns that if the Fed fails to hike, the 10-year Treasury yield could spike sharply as inflation expectations become unanchored.

Kevin expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise further amid escalating Iran conflict and inflation concerns tied to higher oil prices. He believes the Fed and Treasury will avoid tightening, letting yields drift higher.

The discussion connects the 10-year Treasury yield to elevated mortgage rates and consequent disinflation. It forecasts inflation below 2% in roughly a year and compulsory Federal Reserve rate cuts, without explicitly predicting the direction of the 10-year yield.