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US10Y

Asset spotlight

What was said about U.S. 10-year Treasury

Creator calls, with the evidence to check them.
See the track record Read the callsAdd holding

The YouTube conversation

What are creators saying?

Selected calls on file
Recorded calls
16
YouTube channels
3
Pending outcomes
0
  • 3 bullish
  • 13 bearish

30 / 90 days · price direction

Directional track record

Did price move in the direction of the call?

Separate from forecast accuracy.

30-day window

Direction matched: Not enough observations

0 matched

of 0 observed calls

Rate appears from 10 observations

0 waiting for the window

0 missing price evidence

Inspect the calls
Matched
0
Moved opposite
0
Flat
0
Waiting for the window
0
Missing price evidence
0
Published calls on file
16
Excluded from this measurement
16
Additional calls grouped
0

One observation per creator, asset and UTC publication day. Conflicting directions on the same day are excluded. Flat observations stay in the denominator. Waiting windows and missing evidence are unknown outcomes.

No measured calls available yet.

90-day window

Direction matched: Not enough observations

0 matched

of 0 observed calls

Rate appears from 10 observations

0 waiting for the window

0 missing price evidence

Inspect the calls
Matched
0
Moved opposite
0
Flat
0
Waiting for the window
0
Missing price evidence
0
Published calls on file
16
Excluded from this measurement
16
Additional calls grouped
0

One observation per creator, asset and UTC publication day. Conflicting directions on the same day are excluded. Flat observations stay in the denominator. Waiting windows and missing evidence are unknown outcomes.

No measured calls available yet.

How to read this

Direction is extracted by AI and may need correction. These fixed windows do not evaluate the creator’s own target or deadline. The entry is the first full market session after the source’s UTC publication date; we compare its close with the close 30 or 90 calendar days later, rolling a non-trading endpoint forward. Bullish calls match a rise; bearish calls match a fall. This is a price comparison, not a trading return.

How directional measurements work

Forecast accuracy

Creators’ own targets and deadlines

—

nothing resolved yet

16 calls from 3 channels are on file for US10Y. None have resolved yet, so there is no hit rate to report. None are still pending. The record leans bearish: 3 bullish and 13 bearish.

This is the weighted hit rate: a partial counts as half. It uses resolved forecasts, not the 30/90-day directional observations above.

How hit rates work

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Price & targets

Compare one creator’s call at a time.

Verified daily prices are unavailable for this period.

No comparable price targets with a source date are on file. Read the calls below.

About this view

Price window: May 9, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Yahoo Finance · daily closes. Prices and targets use split-adjusted units.

The recorded outcome follows the call’s original target, deadline and conditions. The price line shows daily closing observations.

16 calls lack a comparable target or source date. Find calls without targets in the creator archive.

Calls, by channel

Choose a creator to read their calls and source evidence.

Meet Kevin8 callsBullish

Kevin observes that investors are buying 10-year Treasuries and pushing yields lower despite hot economic data. He expects bond values, alongside stocks, to rally sharply following an Iran deal, which he believes market weakness makes more likely.

Most recent thesisOct 17, 2026Source video

Kevin observes that investors are buying 10-year Treasuries and pushing yields lower despite hot economic data. He expects bond values, alongside stocks, to rally sharply following an Iran deal, which he believes market weakness makes more likely.

Earlier theses (4)
BearishOct 8, 2026Source

Kevin believes the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield is decelerating and expects yields to anchor around 5.27% before declining, which would support stocks. He explicitly considers an alternative in which his peak estimate fails and yields rise toward approximately 5.6%.

BearishOct 2, 2026Source

The host identifies the recent Treasury yield level around 5.27% as a potential peak. His view implies limited further upside in yields, although he expressly acknowledges uncertainty.

BearishOct 2, 2026Source

Kevin calls approximately 5.27% the peak for the 10-year Treasury yield but expects intraday increases until an Iran agreement is reached. A deal would allow yields to fall more sustainably and support rate-sensitive assets.

BearishSep 30, 2026Source

Kevin expects Treasury buying during a future downturn to push the 10-year yield substantially lower if the Federal Reserve avoids quantitative easing. His bearish yield outlook corresponds to a bullish view of Treasury bond prices and supports his expectation of exceptionally low mortgage rates.

BullNot scoredNo targetOct 17, 2026

“The more the stock market falls, the more likely it is that Donald Trump signs a deal with Iran because he wants the bleeding to stop. I sh…”

BullNot scoredNo targetOct 8, 2026

“That's potentially that similar floor where rates could end up skyrocketing up to 5.6.”

BearNot scoredNo targetOct 8, 2026

“We could end up seeing these yields come down pretty rapidly.”

BearNot scoredNo targetOct 2, 2026

“The 10-year Treasury has hockey stick just in the last two weeks, three weeks from 4.9 to like 5.27, which is what I'm calling peak. I coul…”

BearNot scoredNo targetOct 2, 2026

“Once you have a deal with Iran, this can actually meaningfully stay lower.”

BearNot scoredNo targetOct 2, 2026

“I think 527 is peak yields.”

BearNot scored: conditionNo targetSep 30, 2026

“Because if this party stops, so either the labor market stops or the, you know, the debt spending on AI stops, then interest rates are goin…”

BearNot scoredNo targetSep 30, 2026

“The more people buy this, the more the 10-year yield actually goes down to levels that eventually end up even lower than we've ever seen be…”

Stock Moe7 callsBearish

The host treats rising 10-year Treasury yields as the main driver of worsening mortgage affordability, with wider mortgage spreads potentially pushing borrowing rates above 8%. His bearish outlook concerns bonds and housing conditions; his directional forecasts concern higher mortgage rates, with a possible reversal if energy inflation subsides.

Most recent thesisOct 8, 2026Source video

The host treats rising 10-year Treasury yields as the main driver of worsening mortgage affordability, with wider mortgage spreads potentially pushing borrowing rates above 8%. His bearish outlook concerns bonds and housing conditions; his directional forecasts concern higher mortgage rates, with a possible reversal if energy inflation subsides.

Earlier thesis (1)
MixedSep 27, 2026Source

The host forecasts a gradual decline in the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.4% over five years, accompanied by modestly tighter mortgage spreads. He expects borrowing costs to remain elevated relative to the exceptionally low rates of 2021 and warns that current yields create refinancing pressure for companies.

BullNot scoredNo targetOct 8, 2026

“The spread narrows back towards its historic range and the gap right now 2.04. It should go down to the 1.72 which should lower the mortgag…”

BearNot scored: conditionNo targetOct 8, 2026

“If we get up to 5.4, we are real close to having something punch us right up to the 8% mark. And I think it's, you know, personally, I thin…”

BearNot scored: conditionNo targetOct 8, 2026

“If it goes to 300 basis points, which we have seen in recent years, it can go to 8.31% on your mortgage.”

BearNot scoredNo targetSep 27, 2026

“5 years out or down to 4.4. The government gets a little bit better. This is where the CBO's Congressional Budget Office own Pathland. So,…”

BearNot scoredNo targetSep 27, 2026

“Four years, 4.45 spread 175 6.2”

BearNot scoredNo targetSep 27, 2026

“Three years from now, I have it down to 4.5 178 uh bip spread 6.3.”

BearNot scoredNo targetSep 27, 2026

“Two years from now, I think the 10ear is going to be at 4.6 spread tightening 180 as rate volatility settles.”

Michael Tyler1 callBearish

The host expects Treasury yields eventually to ease as what he describes as a reverse short squeeze ends. He views the current rise in yields as unusual because weaker employment data, reduced rate-hike expectations, and lower oil prices have failed to produce sustained relief.

Most recent thesisOct 2, 2026Source video

The host expects Treasury yields eventually to ease as what he describes as a reverse short squeeze ends. He views the current rise in yields as unusual because weaker employment data, reduced rate-hike expectations, and lower oil prices have failed to produce sustained relief.

BearNot scoredNo targetOct 2, 2026

“eventually I think bond yields are going to chill out. The reverse short squeeze is going to end”