Behind the video

MORTGAGE RATES 🚨 10 YEAR FORECAST ‼️ THE TRUTH!

The thesis, the calls, and the words behind them. Play a quote to hear it in the original video.

Stock MoeSep 27, 2026Watch on YouTube

Overall SentimentMixedStrength: 70%

Overall Thesis

The host expects Treasury yields and mortgage rates to decline gradually, with 30-year mortgage rates reaching approximately 6.1% over five years and remaining near that level over ten years. Persistent inflation, federal deficits and Federal Reserve mortgage-bond runoff limit the expected improvement, while elevated yields threaten a near-term stock-market decline.

Narratives

US10YUnited States 10-Year Treasury Yield

Mixed

The host forecasts a gradual decline in the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.4% over five years, accompanied by modestly tighter mortgage spreads. He expects borrowing costs to remain elevated relative to the exceptionally low rates of 2021 and warns that current yields create refinancing pressure for companies.

Key Arguments

The host models 30-year mortgage rates as the 10-year Treasury yield plus a mortgage spread.
He attributes the recent rise in mortgage rates primarily to Treasury yields, with mortgage spreads already close to their historical average.
His Treasury-yield forecast falls to 4.6% in two years, 4.5% in three years, 4.45% in four years and 4.4% in five years.
His central 30-year mortgage-rate forecast is 6.6% in one year, 6.4% in two years, 6.3% in three years, 6.2% in four years and approximately 6.1% in five and ten years; these are interest rates, not asset-price targets.
His ten-year mortgage-rate range extends from 4.5% to 8%, illustrating substantial uncertainty.
He expects 20-year mortgage rates to track approximately 0.2 percentage points below 30-year rates.
Persistent inflation, government borrowing and Federal Reserve mortgage-bond runoff are presented as obstacles to materially lower rates.
He forecasts a broad stock-market drawdown of 5% to 10%, initially referring to the next 90 days and subsequently to three to six months; no specific public index or fund is identified.

Risks acknowledged

The Federal Reserve itself cannot reliably predict policy over long horizons.
Forecast inputs can become stale following policy changes and bond-market selloffs.
Mortgage spreads can widen even if Treasury yields remain unchanged.
The expected easing depends on future Federal Reserve cuts.
The federal deficit cannot be reliably modeled.
The host invites corrections and acknowledges that his projections may be wrong.

Predictions (4)

BearFour years

Not scoredDetails

"Four years, 4.45 spread 175 6.2"

Bear5 years out

Not scoredDetails

"5 years out or down to 4.4. The government gets a little bit better. This is where the CBO's Congressional Budget Office own Pathland. So, I'm using the government's info, putting it together, I come up with 6.1%."

BearThree years from now

Not scoredDetails

"Three years from now, I have it down to 4.5 178 uh bip spread 6.3."

BearTwo years from now

Not scoredDetails

"Two years from now, I think the 10ear is going to be at 4.6 spread tightening 180 as rate volatility settles."

Hedges & Caveats

Long-range forecasts are difficult and depend on changing economic conditions.
The long-run anchors used in the model assume Federal Reserve cuts, while the host says the Fed is still raising rates.
Mortgage spreads could widen substantially, pushing mortgage rates toward 8%.
Federal deficits are an unpredictable variable.
The host supplies broad forecast ranges rather than claiming certainty about exact outcomes.
Refinancing depends on fees, available lender rates and how long the borrower expects to retain the home.
The discussion is presented for educational purposes, with individual decisions left to viewers.

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