TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“Tesla's FST subscription take rate will double by year end to 25%.”@ 4:49 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's FSD approval in the Netherlands is a catalyst for European expansion, which will dramatically increase FSD subscription take rates and create a massive recurring revenue stream. The YouTuber projects FSD subscriptions will double to 25% take rate by end of 2026, generating nearly $2 billion in annual earnings from software alone.
Key arguments
- FSD approval in Netherlands opens path to all EU countries through regulatory process
- FSD becoming a key sales driver for Tesla vehicles in Europe, with sales already increasing in Germany and France
- Tesla has competitive moat - no other company can deploy FSD at this scale globally
- Massive revenue opportunity from subscription model with 80% gross margins
- FSD is stepping stone to unsupervised robotaxi deployment
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- EU bureaucracy and red tape could significantly delay approval process across all member states
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- EU bureaucracy and regulatory red tape could delay approval timeline significantly
- Approval process requires majority vote from all EU member states, which is uncertain
- Individual country approvals may take longer than expected
- Regulatory obstacles or political resistance could impede expansion
The call
- Date said
- Apr 13, 2026
- Timeframe
- by year end
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $352.42
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Specific calculation with detailed math breakdown and confident language