TSLABullpending
Michael TylerTarget Range
$360–$374
“I think Tesla could pretty easily revert back into the 360s, make a run towards the 20-day moving average around 374.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe host believes Tesla is oversold and respecting a key trend line near $300, and expects a rally back toward the 360s/20-day moving average if the Fed avoids a rate hike and AI stock pressure eases. He cites strong operational momentum (robotaxi, FSD, energy, order backlog) as reasons the 40% drawdown from highs is unwarranted.
Key arguments
- Tesla is respecting a trend line around $300 with strong technical support
- RSI at 26 signals oversold conditions
- Operational momentum in robotaxi, FSD subscriptions, energy division, and vehicle order backlog
- Rotation trade favoring non-AI large caps like Tesla and Apple if hyperscaler capex disappoints
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Pre-midterm seasonality tends to bring volatility/corrections
- Tesla's index weighting means algorithmic selling pressure during market-wide selloffs
- Some disappointment that the Optimus roadmap wasn't sped up
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Earnings outcomes for Microsoft and Meta are uncertain and could swing market sentiment either direction
- Capital availability and lending conditions are tightening, creating unpredictable market dynamics
- Risk-reward for broad market indexes is described as 'not great'
The call
- Date said
- Jul 29, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $378.90✓ target met
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price range and technical target (20-day moving average) given, but hedged with 'could' and 'pretty easily' rather than firm commitment.
Source
Oh Sh*t... Tesla Stock.
Said on Jul 29, 2026Open on YouTube ↗